Predicting Pleistocene climate from vegetation in North America

International audienceClimates at the Last Glacial Maximum have been inferred from fossil pollen assemblages, but these inferred climates are colder for eastern North America than those produced by climate simulations. It has been suggested that low CO2 levels could account for this discrepancy. In this study biogeographic evidence is used to test the CO2 effect model. The recolonization of glaciated zones in eastern North America following the last ice age produced distinct biogeographic patterns. It has been assumed that a wide zone south of the ice was tundra or boreal parkland (Boreal-Parkland Zone or BPZ), which would have been recolonized from southern refugia as the ice melted, but the patterns in this zone differ from those in the glaciated zone, which creates a major biogeographic anomaly. In the glacial zone, there are few endemics but in the BPZ there are many across multiple taxa. In the glacial zone, there are the expected gradients of genetic diversity with distance from the ice-free zone, but no evidence of this is found in the BPZ. Many races and related species exist in the BPZ which would have merged or hybridized if confined to the same refugia. Evidence for distinct southern refugia for most temperate species is lacking. Extinctions of temperate flora were rare. The interpretation of spruce as a boreal climate indicator may be mistaken over much of the region if the spruce was actually an extinct temperate species. All of these anomalies call into question the concept that climates in the zone south of the ice were extremely cold or that temperate species had to migrate far to the south. An alternate hypothesis is that low CO2 levels gave an advantage to pine and spruce, which are the dominant trees in the BPZ, and to herbaceous species over trees, which also fits the observed pattern. Thus climate reconstruction from pollen data is probably biased and needs to incorporate CO2 effects. Most temperate species could have survived across their current ranges at lower abundance by retreating to moist microsites. These would be microrefugia not easily detected by pollen records, especially if most species became rare. These results mean that climate reconstructions based on terrestrial plant indicators will not be valid for periods with markedly different CO2 levels

Predicting Pleistocene climate from vegetation

International audienceClimates at the Last Glacial Maximum have been inferred from fossil pollen assemblages, but these inferred climates are colder than those produced by climate simulations. Biogeographic evidence also argues against these inferred cold climates. The recolonization of glaciated zones in eastern North America following the last ice age produced distinct biogeographic patterns. It has been assumed that a wide zone south of the ice was tundra or boreal parkland (Boreal-Parkland Zone or BPZ), which would have been recolonized from southern refugia as the ice melted, but the patterns in this zone differ from those in the glaciated zone, which creates a major biogeographic anomaly. In the glacial zone, there are few endemics but in the BPZ there are many across multiple taxa. In the glacial zone, there are the expected gradients of genetic diversity with distance from the ice-free zone, but no evidence of this is found in the BPZ. Many races and related species exist in the BPZ which would have merged or hybridized if confined to the same refugia. Evidence for distinct southern refugia for most temperate species is lacking. Extinctions of temperate flora were rare. The interpretation of spruce as a boreal climate indicator may be mistaken over much of the region if the spruce was actually an extinct temperate species. All of these anomalies call into question the concept that climates in the zone south of the ice were very cold or that temperate species had to migrate far to the south. Similar anomalies exist in Europe and on tropical mountains. An alternate hypothesis is that low CO2 levels gave an advantage to pine and spruce, which are the dominant trees in the BPZ, and to herbaceous species over trees, which also fits the observed pattern. Most temperate species could have survived across their current ranges at lower abundance by retreating to moist microsites. These would be microrefugia not easily detected by pollen records, especially if most species became rare. These results mean that climate reconstruction based on terrestrial plant indicators will not be valid for periods with markedly different CO2 levels

On a minimal model for estimating climate sensitivity

In a recent issue of this journal, Loehle (2014) presents a "minimal model" for estimating climate sensitivity, identical to that previously published by Loehle and Scafetta (2011). The novelty in the more recent paper lies in the straightforward calculation of an estimate of transient climate response based on the model and an estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity derived therefrom, via a flawed methodology. We demonstrate that the Loehle and Scafetta model systematically underestimates the transient climate response, due to a number of unsupportable assumptions regarding the climate system. Once the flaws in Loehle and Scafetta's model are addressed, the estimates of transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity derived from the model are entirely consistent with those obtained from general circulation models, and indeed exclude the possibility of low climate sensitivity, directly contradicting the principal conclusion drawn by Loehle. Further, we present an even more parsimonious model for estimating climate sensitivity. Our model is based on observed changes in radiative forcings, and is therefore constrained by physics, unlike the Loehle model, which is little more than a curve-fitting exercise

Habitat destruction and the extinction debt revisited

A very important analysis of the problem of habitat destruction concluded that such destruction may lead to an extinction debt, which is the irreversible loss of species following a prolonged transient or delay. An error in interpretation of this model led the authors to apply the results to all types of habitat destruction, but in fact the model applies only to an across-the-board decrease in fecundity, not to disturbances. For repeated, spatially random disturbance, a different model applies. For habitat destruction on regional scales (reduction in ecosystem area without disturbance in remnant areas), one must, in contrast, apply species-area relations based on the distribution of different habitat types (e.g., elevational and rainfall gradients, physiographic and edaphic variability). The error in interpretation of the basic model is presented, followed by clarification of model usage and development of a new model that applies to disturbance events

Proper statistical treatment of species-area data

The purpose of this report is to comment on the entire process of analyzing species-area data, particularly as performed by Rydin and Borgegaard (1988). They use three different models to test species-area relations for islands over a 100 year period. Several aspects of their analysis of species-area data could be improved, including their comparison of goodness-of-fit and testing of the expected value of z. The reason that these issues are important (their basic conclusions being correct) is that there is acrimonious debate over the best model to use for species-area curves and over whether the scope coefficient is constant or is an artifact, and because the species-area curve is being used for nature reserve design. The problems pointed out here are common to a large class of allometric-type analyses in ecology. The author attempts to show the potential pitfalls inherent in allometric analyses and demonstrate methods for avoiding these problems

Adaptive significance of root grafting in trees

Root grafting has long been observed in forest trees but the adaptive significance of this trait has not been fully explained. Various authors have proposed that root grafting between trees contributes to mechanical support by linking adjacent root systems. Keeley proposes that this trait would be of greatest advantage in swamps where soils provide poor mechanical support. He provides as evidence a greenhouse study of Nyssa sylvatica Marsh in which seedlings of swamp provenance formed between-individual root grafts more frequently than upland provenance seedlings. In agreement with this within-species study, Keeley observed that arid zone species rarely exhibit grafts. Keeley also demonstrated that vines graft less commonly than trees, and herbs never do. Since the need for mechanical support coincides with this trend, these data seem to support his model. In this paper, the authors explore the mechanisms and ecological significance of root grafting, leading to predictions of root grafting incidence. Some observations support and some contradict the mechanical support hypothesis

Climate change effects on forests: A critical review

While current projections of future climate change associated with increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases have a high degree of uncertainty, the potential effects of climate change on forests are of increasing concern. A number of studies based on forest simulation models predict substantial temperatures associated with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. However, the structure of these computer models may cause them to overemphasize the role of climate in controlling tree growth and mortality. We propose that forest simulation models be reformulated with more realistic representations of growth responses to temperature, moisture, mortality, and dispersal. We believe that only when these models more accurately reflect the physiological bases of the responses of tree species to climate variables can they be used to simulate responses of forests to rapid changes in climate. We argue that direct forest responses to climate change projected by such a reformulated model may be less traumatic and more gradual than those projected by current models. However, the indirect effects of climate change on forests, mediated by alterations of disturbance regimes or the actions of pests and pathogens, may accelerate climate-induced change in forests, and they deserve further study and inclusion within forest simulation models

Persistent detwinning of iron pnictides by small magnetic fields

Our comprehensive study on EuFe$_2$As$_2$ reveals a dramatic reduction of magnetic detwinning fields compared to other AFe$_2$As$_2$ (A = Ba, Sr, Ca) iron pnictides by indirect magneto-elastic coupling of the Eu$^{2+}$ ions. We find that only 0.1T are sufficient for persistent detwinning below the local Eu$^{2+}$ ordering; above $T_\text{Eu}$ = 19K, higher fields are necessary. Even after the field is switched off, a significant imbalance of twin domains remains constant up to the structural and electronic phase transition (190K). This persistent detwinning provides the unique possibility to study the low temperature electronic in-plane anisotropy of iron pnictides without applying any symmetrybreaking external force.Comment: accepted by Physical Review Letter

A 2022 τ\tau-Herculid meteor cluster from an airborne experiment: automated detection, characterization, and consequences for meteoroids

Context. The existence of meteor clusters has long since been a subject of speculation and so far only seven events have been reported, among which two involve less than five meteors, and three were seen during the Leonid storms. Aims. The 1995 outburst of Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann was predicted to result in a meteor shower in May 2022. We detected the shower, proved this to be the result of this outburst, and detected another meteor cluster during the same observation mission. Methods. The {\tau}-Herculids meteor shower outburst on 31 May 2022 was continuously monitored for 4 hours during an airborne campaign. The video data were analyzed using a recently developed computer-vision processing chain for meteor real-time detection. Results. We report and characterize the detection of a meteor cluster involving 38 fragments, detected at 06:48 UT for a total duration of 11.3 s. The derived cumulative size frequency distribution index is relatively shallow: s = 3.1. Our open-source computer-vision processing chain (named FMDT) detects 100% of the meteors that a human eye is able to detect in the video. Classical automated motion detection assuming a static camera was not suitable for the stabilized camera setup because of residual motion. Conclusions. From all reported meteor clusters, we crudely estimate their occurrence to be less than one per million observed meteors. Low heliocentric distance enhances the probability of such meteoroid self-disruption in the interplanetary space.Comment: 6 pqges, 5 figure